Practical Probability and Insurance Analogy

I dive into the Human Rights Foundation’s look at Bitcoin’s quantum vulnerability - what’s real, what’s hype, and what would it take to truly secure the network. Then I unpack the social and technical chaos such a shift would demand, from wallet redesigns to the moral question of whether “fixing” the past would break Bitcoin’s principles.

Check out the original article The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin by HRF (Link: https://hrf.org/latest/the-quantum-threat-to-bitcoin/) 

Links Mentioned

• Against Allowing Quantum Recovery of Bitcoin by Jameson Lopp (Link: https://blog.lopp.net/against-quantum-recovery-of-bitcoin/)
• Presidio Bitcoin Quantum Summit - summary and speaker discussions (Link: https://www.presidiobitcoin.org/)
• Replication of Quantum Factorisation Records with an
  8-bit Home Computer, an Abacus, and a Dog - paper by Peter Gutmann & Stephan Neuhaus (Link: https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1237.pdf)
  Angewandte Wissenschaften
• Guy's Roundtable_011 - Treasuries, Politics, Quantum & Why This Cycle is Different (Discusses Steve’s take on quantum hype) (Link: https://fountain.fm/episode/4xAEXBtZcdFfg064FIRI)

Check out our awesome sponsors!

• Ledn: Need fiat but don’t want to sell your Bitcoin? Ledn offers secure, Bitcoin-backed loans with no credit checks, flexible repayment, and fast turnaround—often within 24 hours. With $10B+ in loans across 100+ countries and transparent Proof of Reserves, Ledn is a trusted option for unlocking liquidity without giving up your Bitcoin. (Link: https://learn.ledn.io/audible)
• HRF: The Human Rights Foundation is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes and protects human rights globally, with a focus on closed societies. Subscribe to HRF's Financial Freedom Newsletter today. (Link: https://mailchi.mp/hrf.org/financial-freedom-newsletter)
• OFF: The Oslo Freedom Forum is a global human rights event by the Human Rights Foundation (HRF), uniting voices from activism, journalism, tech, and beyond. Through powerful stories and collaboration, OFF advances freedom and human potential worldwide. Join us next June. (Link: https://oslofreedomforum.com/)
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