9min chapter

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What happens if the American election is a tie?

The Story

CHAPTER

Nebraska's Electoral Impact

This chapter examines Nebraska's unique political landscape and how its solitary electoral vote might influence the upcoming presidential election. It highlights the state's historical significance and discusses the complexities of the U.S. electoral college system, including the possibility of ties and the ramifications of such outcomes. Additionally, the chapter reflects on the contentious 2000 election and its lessons for the future political climate.

00:00
Speaker 2
What though, if they end up just as divided as the rest? in which case an even smaller group, an infinitesimal blip of a number, could be king or queen makers. Nebraska
Speaker 1
and Omaha's single electoral college vote never really matters to anybody in any election. This time round, though, there is a massive focus on it because it could be the single electoral vote that ends up deciding the presidency and
Speaker 2
deciding the whole thing. How could it possibly come to this?
Speaker 1
We just work hard, we want to support our families, and we don't necessarily like being in the national spotlight all the time. It's an important election, yes. And I think it's not just Omaha that cares more, I think the whole U.S. cares more. Actually, I might go so far as to say the world cares more.
Speaker 2
The story today, the blue dot that could decide the US election. Can you introduce yourself, all your names
Speaker 1
and who you are? All of them. There's quite a few to get through. Tom Newton-Dunn covering the US election for
Speaker 2
The Times. And you've been all over the place. Tell us in particular about Nebraska. What's Nebraska like? Nebraska's a fascinating place,
Speaker 1
really, although not many people would say that. It's bang in the middle of the continental US. It is literally the middle state. It's one of the least populated states in America as well, some 26 people per square mile. So it's pretty empty. They grow an awful lot of corn in Nebraska, that much I can say when you fly over the state, there's really nothing but cornfields after cornfields. And the other thing it's known as, it's the headquarters for the Pentagon's nuclear command. So all their missile silos are in Nebraska, large because it's the furthest away from any potential enemies being Bang& Middle. And you also might remember, it's where they flew George Bush on 9-11, during the 9-11 attacks. They flew him to Nebraska because it was considered the most remote and safest place. It gets a bit of a tough write-up. People are a bit unkind to Nebraska. It's apparently the third most boring state in the US, according to these surveys, just behind Idaho and South Dakota, which is its neighbors. And it's also the least visited. Americans go to Nebraska less than any other state in the US. But that's the way Nebraskans like it. They don't mind being quiet. They're quite happy being ignored. And they've got this phrase, Nebraska nice. They're nice to each other in Nebraska, and they don't go in for the sort of tribal warfare
Speaker 2
that you might see in other US states. Okay, we'll get into why exactly you were there bucking the trend in a moment. But first, let's explain, because obviously, all eyes are on the upcoming US presidential election, how it works, because it's very different to our system here. It relies on this electoral college. Can you explain that for us, Tom? Yeah,
Speaker 1
so the electoral college is basically a load of different votes, 538 of them in total, divided by each US state, depending on the size of their population. So the big states like California have got 50 electoral votes, little ones like Nebraska, for example, have only got five electoral votes. And then they're all added up. You vote state by state. Most states, it's winner takes all. You add them all up together. And the person, the candidate, this time Trump or Harris, who gets over 270, which is a majority of one or two, then wins. So it's all about this number 270. Who can tally up all the different votes all across the states to get over the finishing line? And because
Speaker 2
the way the electoral college votes are distributed amongst the states obviously doesn't entirely exactly map in comparison to the population, we've had in the past quite some big stushies over someone winning the popular vote, as it were, but not necessarily winning the right number of electoral votes to win. Yeah,
Speaker 1
precisely that. It can be a controversial system. It was devised by the founding fathers way back when. So the states weren't dominated by the big coastal cities these days, you know, the New Yorks and the Los Angeles, and the state's voice would still be heard. But it has happened a few times, only four or five times, where a candidate has won the popular vote, but not the 270 votes they need in Electoral College. Clinton won the popular vote for about 200,000 votes,
Speaker 2
but still lost that election. Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote and losing the election is a formula we haven't seen in 16 years. 2016,
Speaker 1
obviously, Trump ended up winning because he got the more electoral votes. And when you
Speaker 2
have the system where it's 538 votes, which is going towards the president, it's a lot easier to have a tie than if it were the, I don't know what it is, 160 or million so voters actually casting their vote directly for the president. So I mean, people who can remember hanging chads and Gore and Bush, we've come unstuck before with this system. Yeah,
Speaker 1
very much so. I mean, it's pretty hard to get a tie on a vote of 160 million people, because that really would be an unbelievable statistical anomaly. But electoral coaches, it's a lot easier. The tie is effectively 269 versus 269. Now, we came quite close in 2000, Bush versus Gore, where basically neither candidate got to 270. Florida was the last state left to declare a huge amount of electoral votes in Florida, 25. 20 years ago, Florida became ground zero for one of the most contentious and drawn-out presidential elections in American history. 2000 was a unique set of circumstances that brought about something that was very dramatic, very unique, and unforgettable, really, with the 36-day recount. You remember, there was an unbelievable row over hanging chads and what votes should count and shouldn't count. Before the 2000 presidential election, most people thought Chad was the name of a person, not the name of a clingy rectangle that refuses to let go of a punch card ballot. It went to the courts, and some five weeks after polling day, early November, eventually Al Gore conceded that George Bush had indeed won Florida by just a tiny fraction of votes. But that gave George Bush the 25 extra electoral votes he needed, which took him just over the line to 271. But still, very, very close.
Speaker 2
And I guess to illustrate how closely they were examining that, if you go to the George W. Bush Library in Dallas, Texas, you can see some, the hanging chads, weren't it, there was a bit of paper hanging out of the voting card that you would actually punch through a hole and they hadn't quite come off. So they were dangling and that was the issue, wasn't it? Yeah,
Speaker 1
it was. And it was really controversial. And weeks and weeks of litigation in Florida courts went on about whether or not to count these votes that had these hanging chads on them. Was it a real vote or was it not a proper vote because you haven't pushed your little bit of paper through the hole? And that's what the entire presidency came down to. And arguably, it changed US history because we then had 9-11 pretty close after that election. Would Al Gore have done what George Bush did, declare the war on terror or not? We'll never know.
Speaker 2
especially if you look at the polls, it looks quite tight. Who knows if we're in tied territory again. Talk us through the scenario that some people are, I guess, worrying about in terms of a possible tie. In 2024, how might that be at all likely? Well,
Speaker 1
a tie, an electoral tie, as in 269 versus 269 electoral votes, is statistically still incredibly unlikely. I think there's always something like a 0.5% chance in most elections. This election, however, it is becoming increasingly possible. And I have to say, it's absolutely terrifying the experts when they look at it. And if you just look at an electoral map, you can really see quite easily why. Actually, there are four different scenarios on this, depending on how you add it up and who gets what. But the most likely scenario, which is actually quite probable, I think, Kamala Harris wins the three Rust Belt states, so Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Donald Trump wins the Sun Belt, so Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, where he's just about ahead at the moment. Harris is ahead in the Rust Belts. That would end up with 26969 to Harris and 2.68 to Trump. So both of them, one or two short, which is why the single electoral college vote that's hanging around in Nebraska suddenly becomes massively important and potentially Nebraskans then become the kingmakers.

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