Mantic Monday 6/13/22
Astral Codex Ten Podcast
00:00
The Predictions for the Republican Candidates, Polly Market and Manifold
Will rick crusoe be elected mayor of los angeles in 22? It's a mitacular screen shot. Community says 54 %, with 23 predictions. I think metaculus is just wrong here, and have bet against three. Here's presidential nominees on predictit, 13 million dollars in liquidity. Poly market, 30 thousand dollars. And manifold, three thousand, 170 m dollars. So t'll go predicted, poly market, manifold. In each case, when they have them in different orders, i'll point that out.
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