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Inflation Data and the Commodity Markets
We're right at what I think is turn in inflation where the Federal Reserve has beat it back successfully from the highs by really slowing down the economy as best they could. What I'm expecting is that the rise recent rise in energy prices is going to cause some kind of an upside stir in the CPI data, you know, sooner rather than later. A number that's worse inflation than expected something that can derail the bond market and send rates higher but also sends a signal to the commodity markets that the interest rate moves have done nothing to tame them.