If this is the beginning of the Third World War and it escalates in a way that are the worst case scenarios, that really is it. I think we have to be very careful to first of all work out what exactly we're looking at. Is this a localized conflict where Putin has tried to make a quick land grab? Or is this something much more profound, much more existential, that is about the West,. It's about conquests of large patches of territory; how do we carve that up? And I think we haven't thought that through particularly well, partly because we're so busy with the logistical problem of keeping the Ukrainian army supplied.

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