Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast cover image

Effectively Wild Episode 1988: The 2023 Team Fun Draft

Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast

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The Catch Probability Graph

It's a catch probability graph. It falls to 20%. He goes in the wrong direction, it falls to 10%. Ultimately, it looks like it bottomed out at about 5% because he had just gotten the worst possible jump. And then he's running the wrong way. And it's just like hovering for the next couple seconds at around 10%. And it never really gets above 10% until he makes the catch. It gets to 100%, which I don't know why this sort of thing pleases me. For some reason, seeing this represented either statistically or graphically, it just, it thrills me.

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