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#41 - Parenting, Epistemology, and EA (w/ Lulie Tanett)
Increments
The Importance of Subjective Confidence
I'm a little less harsh on People using probabilities to talk about their own subjective beliefs. As long as this doesn't trespass into the area of like what's actually true And so I think this starts getting conflated a lot, right? If I say I have 80 percent confidence that Putin's going to drop a nuke on ukraine um it's very easy for people to start conflating that with an actual 50 percent chance or an 85 percent chance. We're lacking a lot of like epistemic humility when we start assigning numbers to things and pretending those numbers like track reality in meaning.
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