Intro

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 253 to discuss the economy and markets.

Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Ted discusses the concerning deterioration in economic indicators despite ongoing investor complacency, warning that earnings expectations are too optimistic while market multiples remain elevated. He shares his approach to maintaining significant liquidity (currently 55%) while selectively investing in value opportunities like consumer staples. Ted also explains his gold strategy, with bullion as a permanent currency hedge and miners as tradable assets. The conversation concludes with insights from his new book "Second Generation Wealth," where he emphasizes the importance of letting children experience financial independence and adversity before introducing them to family wealth.

With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.

He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.

Links:

Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors

X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction and welcome

0:32 Big picture macro view - deterioration and complacency

2:05 Explaining market complacency despite bearish sentiment

3:21 Liquidity and portfolio positioning

4:45 Appropriate liquidity levels by age group

7:42 Boomers' over-allocation to stocks

8:47 Value Line Investment Survey as a market indicator

10:52 Scaling into investments during market downturns

11:55 Fully invested vs. current 55% liquid strategy

14:09 Market risks: shrinking corporate margins and multiples

16:05 Market decline without recession possibility

17:05 Recent market movement - another chance for liquidity

18:35 Q1 GDP insights and market end-of-month action

19:48 Preparing for potential market scenarios

21:26 Retail buyers and leverage in current market recovery

22:35 Current investment opportunities - consumer staples and value

24:48 Gold strategy - bullion as currency hedge vs. miners as trades

27:45 Gold's purchasing power preservation over time

30:10 Treasury strategy - staying under two years to maintain control

31:36 US fiscal situation and future outlook

33:58 Second Generation Wealth - inheritance and teaching kids about money

36:17 Helping children develop self-esteem and independence

39:16 The importance of adversity and work ethic for children

41:37 Setting an example - treating everyone equally

44:13 Parting thoughts