Prediction Markets: Supercycle and Use Cases

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev joins Molly O’Shea from Robinhood HQ to break down the company’s record year and what powered its growth.

Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) stock opened 2025 under $40/share and ended the year around $113/share, a ~200% annual gain, pushing the company to roughly $120B in market capitalization. But as Vlad explains, the bigger story is under the hood.

Today, Robinhood has 11 separate business lines generating $100M+ in annual revenue (!!), including prediction markets, margin, Gold subscriptions, cash sweep, crypto, and institutional infrastructure via Bitstamp. Vlad walks through Robinhood’s three long-term arcs: becoming #1 for active traders, owning wallet share for the next generation, and expanding globally into business and institutional markets.

The conversation spans:

• Prediction markets as a new supercycle (sports, weather, insurance)

• Tokenized stocks and 24/7 trading in Europe

• Reinventing earnings calls as live, interactive experiences

• Unlocking private markets and AI companies for retail investors

• Robinhood Cortex, an AI financial assistant with full portfolio context

• Why retail investors today look very different than in 2021

This is a deep look at how Robinhood matured alongside its users — and how Vlad thinks about the next decade of finance.

Vlad Tenev:Molly O’Shea: ⁠https://x.com/MollySOShea⁠Sourcery: ⁠https://x.com/sourceryvc

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YouTube: https://youtu.be/7cvVgxJYb-I

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Disclosure

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