Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine
80k After Hours
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What's the Risk of Escalation?
i was one of the people who thought it was about a point four % chance at a risk a year in normal times. i decided on one in 25 rather than one in 33, or some other number. I talked to a bunch of people. One friend who 's an excellent forecast who thought the risk might be 20%. That seemed, waig, too high to me. Yet, what i thought about those amel, i think we do live in a very different world. I think the risk and the createn war might have been higher. You had the whole thing with th they thought about using nuclear weaponsin a i think we e norms against nuclear weapons. But, probably
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