robin hanson's new book with kevin simmler the elephant in the brain hidden motives and everyday life is out now. i think many people favor prediction markets as a political signal of the kind of things they like in the world that is people want to take the stance that they're in favor of truth and accuracy, she says. If you actually are doing something that you don't want to do then your signaling share probably dropped to 30% or less fascinating next question so joining these two worlds of prediction markets and the signaling right.

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