Thinking About Macro
The Memo by Howard Marks
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Investing in Macro Forecasts
Most macro forecasts are likely to turn out to be either, a, unhelpful consensus expectations or b, non consensus forecasts that are rarely right. I can count on one hand the investors i know who successfully base their decisions on macro forecasts. The rest invest from the bottom up, one investment at a time. They buy when they think they've found bargains, and sell things they consider overpriced,. mostly without reference to the makro outlook....
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