Chuck’s Top Five Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip

On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck breaks down the political fallout from the ending of the longest government shutdown in history— and what it revealed about both parties’ internal divides. He also answers listeners’ questions regarding the shutdown.

Then, former intelligence officer and Democratic senate candidate from Kentucky Joel Willett joins Chuck Todd for a wide-ranging and deeply personal conversation — from his post-9/11 path into military service to the experiences that pushed him toward the Democratic Party. They highlight the  parallels between his own story and JD Vance’s, offering candid thoughts on Hillbilly Elegy and how addiction, inequality, and disillusionment shape modern politics. He argues that the fentanyl crisis can’t be solved by policing supply alone — the real solution lies in investing in treatment, healthcare access, and rebuilding opportunity in communities like his home state of Kentucky.

The conversation turns sharp as Willett critiques senate Democrats’ handling of the recent shutdown deal, calling it a “betrayal of the public,” and weighs in on the Democrats’ leadership struggles, the GOP’s subservience to Trump, and the erosion of national security norms. From the dangers of AI-era inequality to the growing politicization of the intelligence community, Willett warns that without courage and reform, even the institutions built to protect democracy could falter.

Finally, he gives his update ToddCast Top 5 Senate seats most likely to flip parties, and answers more non-shutdown related questions in “Ask Chuck”

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:15 Shutdown fight wasn’t only about healthcare, Dems wanted a fight

05:00 Shutdown was impacting people who don’t follow politics & risky

05:45 Democrats are fighting over tactics, not policy

07:30 Democrats need a leadership change, but may not happen right away

08:30 There’s a growing divide amongst Republicans in congress

09:30 The trickle down economy isn’t working for most Americans

10:30 Voters will want more guardrails on economy to help inequality

11:30 Q&A - Shutdown related questions

11:45 Republicans control government, why aren’t they getting more blame?

13:00 Media mistakenly believes the public understands government

15:15 Johnson kept the house adjourned to avoid optics issues

17:15 Journalists need to explain politics in a way that’s accessible

18:15 How do you win a shutdown fight? Is it possible to win one?

20:00 Congress should find a way to make shutdowns impossible

21:30 Shutdowns are purely for partisan actors

24:30 Is a tough vote the only thing Democrats extracted from shutdown?

28:00 Schumer is a terrible communicator and can’t communicate the win

29:30 Why was the legislative process so dysfunctional?

33:45 We need a congressional leader to make the committee process work

39:00 Joel Willett joins the Chuck ToddCast

41:00 Joel’s origin story

42:15 9/11 was what led Joel to join the armed services

44:00 Experiences in the military led him to join the Democratic party

46:00 Parallels between Joel’s origin story and JD Vance’s

47:00 Thoughts on Hillbilly Elegy?

48:45 It’s hard to square the JD Vance of 2016 vs Vance now

49:30 Politicians haven’t been able to address the fentanyl crisis

50:45 The conversation is only focused on supply side of overdose crisis

52:45 Investment needs to be made in treatment, not incarceration

54:45 It’s too tough to get access to quality rehab resources

56:30 You never get over the loss of a parent

57:15 Kentucky needs more healthcare facilities writ large

58:15 Administration has shown they don’t care about healthcare access

1:00:30 How should the government be thinking about future jobs in AI era?

1:02:30 AI is not the panacea that many think it is

1:04:15 Fascism grows in the fertile fields of inequality

1:05:30 Tax policy needs to address historic inequality

1:06:30 Capital gains should be taxed at least at the same rate as labor

1:08:45 Most people receiving benefits work or want to work

1:10:00 The system has been bought and paid for by entrenched interests

1:11:45 Why did Andy Beshear win and Amy McGrath lose?

1:13:30 Andy Beshear willing to speak his truth and show up

1:14:00 How would Joel try to win over Trump voters?

1:17:00 Shutdown deal struck by Democrats was a betrayal of the public

1:19:00 The shutdown fight isn’t technically over

1:20:45 8 Democrats who voted yes aren’t running for reelection in ‘26

1:21:30 ACA subsidies may actually get Republican votes in January

1:22:15 Republicans will do whatever Trump says to

1:23:45 Without a healthcare deal, Dems should shutdown govt in January

1:25:00 Should Chuck Schumer resign as senate minority leader?

1:26:15 Thoughts on Rand Paul and his distancing himself from Trumpworld?

1:28:00 Republicans aren’t governing for the entire country

1:30:15 Threats are being made to a free and fair election in ‘26

1:32:00 The state of the American intelligence community?

1:34:00 Joel’s security clearance revoked for saying mean things about Trump

1:34:45 Right wing Twitter is influencing the intelligence community

1:36:45 The military isn’t going to save America from authoritarianism

1:37:45 Resignation of head of southern command is a big deal

1:42:00 ToddCast Top 5 Senate seats most likely to flip parties

1:43:15 #1 North Carolina

1:47:30 #2 Maine

1:49:30 #3 Georgia

1:51:15 #4 Michigan

1:53:30 #5 Ohio

1:55:30 Democrats can absolutely win the majority in the senate

1:56:30 Ask Chuck

1:56:45 How different would America be if we hadn’t ended the draft?

1:59:45 Which college football head coaching jobs are most attractive?

2:03:15 Viability of female presidential candidates?

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