Analyzing Polling Trends and Youth Voting Behavior in Elections

Chuck Todd begins with the public and media feeding frenzy over Donald Trump and the Epstein files and explains that the best explanation for the administration’s defensiveness is that Trump’s reputation would be tarnished rather than Trump being implicated in crimes. He also weighs in on the FCC and chairman Brendan Carr deciding that the government should have a role in editorial decisions for broadcast networks and why that’s a clear violation of the first amendment. He also breaks down recent polling that shows how badly the Democratic brand is with the general public.

Then, John Della Volpe, Director of Polling at the Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics joins Chuck to dissect the political awakening of America's youngest voters and the warning signs Democrats can't afford to ignore. Della Volpe explains why Harris's underperformance with young voters compared to Biden signals a deeper crisis for Democrats, particularly with young men who have been drifting away from the party for years. The conversation explores how economic anxiety trumps cultural issues when voters are struggling, why Trump's approval rating is cratering below 30% with under-30 voters despite his election victory, and how COVID-19 became a defining generational experience that shaped Gen Z's worldview in ways politicians are only beginning to understand.

The discussion delves into the complex psychology of young male voters, from Della Volpe's "10 archetypes" framework to why many feel abandoned by institutions and drawn to figures like Charlie Kirk who project strength. Della Volpe argues that while Gen Z has largely given up on Washington, they remain deeply engaged in their local communities—as evidenced by progressive victories like Mamdani's win when young voters feel genuinely heard. The episode tackles uncomfortable truths about how Democrats might be losing the messaging war to MAGA influencers, why the party can’t manufacture its own "Joe Rogan," and whether this generation that "loves Bernie and hates woke" will ultimately become transformational political actors shaped by Trump-era strongman politics.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment!

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

02:00 Gen Z’s politics haven’t been set in stone yet

03:30 Huge trend in voters registered as “No Party”

05:30 Epstein feeding frenzy is being driven by algorithms

07:15 If Maxwell had more info, why didn’t she talk in exchange for a lesser sentence?

08:45 The biggest question mark is Trump’s defensiveness

09:45 There was no Epstein “cover up” by the media

11:45 The most likely explanation is that releasing files would tarnish Trump

13:15 The DOJ is losing all credibility with the public

15:15 The information ecosystem is terrible and unregulated AI will make it worse*

16:30 Elon giving Grok a political bias will make people think all AI’s are biased

17:15 FCC restrictions will turn CBS into state television

18:45 Most important diversity in a newsroom is geography and socioeconomic

20:30 Our news ecosystem has been hijacked by the Epstein conspiracy

22:00 The FCC is violating the first amendment

24:00 Brendan Carr believes the FCC’s job is to dictate content

26:15 Newsroom leaders have mostly stayed silent on FCC overreach

29:45 Epstein story shows that the public can be whipped up by misinformation

31:00 “How to” guide for assessing public polling

34:00 Polling with registered voters is good for R’s, “All adults” polls good for D’s

35:45 Dems only lead by 3 points on the generic ballot

37:00 Democrats 60% unfavorable in same WSJ poll

39:00 Dems can be unpopular and still win the midterms

41:00 Voters trust Republicans in Congress on most issues

43:15 A midterm electorate is much different than the entire population

45:15 John Della Volpe joins the Chuck ToddCast! 

46:45 When Democrats win 60% of the youth vote, they win 

48:15 Harris did worse with both young men and women than Biden in 20' 

49:45 Democrats' problem with young men has been brewing for years 

51:30 Democrats need to get closer to voters 

52:45 Did Obama create a coalition that was unique to him? 

54:30 Abortion was a more salient issue in 22' than in 24' 

55:30 When the economy is bad, cultural issues take a backseat 

57:45 Trump hasn't addressed cost of living and his approval is dropping 

59:45 Trump's approval is under 30% with voters under 30 

1:01:00 Where do Millennials and Gen-Z align and diverge? 

1:03:00 Covid was a defining moment for Gen-Z 

1:04:45 Migration patterns are south and west, not north 

1:06:15 Gen-Z knows they won't do as well as their parents 

1:07:15 Eras tour showed Gen-Z craves in-person experiences and community 

1:10:15 Can Democrats manufacture a "Joe Rogan of the left"? 

1:11:45 Young men came out of Covid more isolated than young women 

1:12:45 MAGA developed relationships with influencers outside of politics 

1:14:15 Young men grow up with expectations they'll be providers 

1:15:30 The 10 archetypes of young men 

1:16:45 "Provider" types are feeling abandoned by institutions 

1:18:30 "The Scroller" has been shaped by algorithms 

1:20:00 AOC is the only politician to reach young voters via gaming 

1:21:30 Will Gen Z be a transformational generation politically? 

1:23:00 Gen Z has given up on Washington but not their communities

1:25:00 The lesson from Mamdani's win is young voters show up when they feel heard 

1:26:15 Gen Z loves Bernie and hates "woke" 

1:27:45 Gen Z white men have felt mocked and shamed 

1:29:00 Gen Z men see strength in Charlie Kirk 

1:31:00 At what stage of life do political preferences get calcified? 

1:33:15 Gen Z will be shaped by Trump 

1:34:15 Strongman politics will be formative to Gen Z 

1:36:00 Is it too soon to understand Gen Alpha?

1:39:00 Chuck's thoughts on interview with John Della Volpe 

1:40:00 The cultural impact of the celebrities we lost in the past week 

1:42:45 Professional wrestling and Donald Trump go hand in hand 

1:44:30 Ask Chuck 

1:45:00 What areas can the U.S. recover from quickly after Trump leaves office? 

1:49:15 Can Democrats learn anything from the "sewer socialists" in Milwaukee? 

1:53:00 What was it like doing your cameo in "Heads of State"? 

1:54:00 Why are we so fixated on Iran's ability to build a nuke? 

1:57:30 Baseball Hall of Fame inductions