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Personalist Dittators Are Often Really Unpredictable in Their Behaviors
Research on personalist dictators suggests they are most likely to initiate conflicts with other states. All the evidence suggests that this was a huge miscalculation on the part of putton. And it really reflects the fact that the information environment in his regime is poor. So far, all signs are pointing towards an intensification of the conflict. I am not persuaded by the idea that there's certain personalities that are gon to be more likely to do these things. Rather, these insis are a product of the environment that they created, which is going to foster in uncertainty, paranoia and so forth.