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172 - Efficient Counterfactuals

Not So Standard Deviations

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Are There Analysts That Are Just Like Always Wrong?

I have an ongoing relationship with someone who I got to the point where whatever she says something I assume it's wrong and that is usually correct. Like anything about the world like oh this type of bomber was used in Vietnam I'm like okay I know that type of bomber wasn't used. It's not used. And so maybe not if they work at the same place but yeah, just collaborating with other people which is sometimes hard to do can be a good way to get quasi-independent verification right.

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