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Rory Sutherland | Nassim Taleb Wrote The Book Jacket For Alchemy

The Incerto Podcast

CHAPTER

How to Predict a Viral Infection

All the models Of covid transmission seem to assume that it was binary you either got infected or you didn't. There was no consideration of the fact that the size of the initial dose might have a bearing on the course of the disease. And so all these things make the whole thing incredibly complicated because there's a there's a loop back between behavior and you know and consequences.

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