Speaker 2
And he's been supreme leader since 89, right? Pardon me? He's been the Ayatollah in charge since 89, right?
Speaker 1
Correct. Yes. He has been the Supreme there since 89 and he's 85. And the debate and the process for the next Supreme leader has actually started. Unlike what they say, especially the monarchist opposition in exile, unlike what they say, Iran's political space has actually has opened up considerably ever since Pazeshkkom was elected in last August. And there is a strong debate about what's going to happen in the post-Khamenei era. And that debate has been raging, has been continuing. And all evidence indicates that Khamenei himself wants that debate to continue so that they actually enter the post-Khamenei era. Now there are also guesses and speculations and rumors about who will succeed him. Some people think that his son, one of his sons, Mosheva Khamenei, about whom I wrote an article a long time ago, published by Tehran Bureau, will succeed him. But Hominay himself has expressed opposition to this idea and has said that Iran is not a monarchy, that, you know, somebody dies and then his son takes over. But this all depends on the balance of values, faction, balance of force between values, factions within Iran. Certainly the hardliners are strong, but at the same time, the moderates and the reformers, and those who want to basically make a transition from present political structure to a more representative political structure also have their supporters. At the same time, the civil society in Iran is strongly behind the moderates and the reformists. And in fact, Pazeshkian was one of the reasons Pazeshkian got the vote from Iranian people was because Iranian people were afraid of the alternative, who was Saeed Jalili, former nuclear negotiator, who is an ultra-hard and has always talked about the possibility of war with the United States. And people went to go to get position elected. So the process of debate and discussions and so on for the post-Khamini era in Iran has already started. is also possible that Khamenei himself, he has expressed this publicly several times, as recently as a few months ago, that he opposes anybody who is related to him to succeed him after he's gone. It is quite possible that he himself opposes it, but if he passes away without any preparation, then the power struggle after him may take Iran into any direction, including getting his son, Mostavov, to be the next Supreme Leader. But as I said, this precisely and exactly depends on the balance of forces between virus factors. It also depends to a great extent where the IRGC stands. We know that after demonstrations in Iran started in 2022, in September of 2022, over the death of Iranian woman Mahsa Amini, a group of senior IRDC officers presented a plan to harmony for a very significant reform of the political structure and opening up the political space and granting many rights that people have been struggling for. And at that time, it was said that it was deported that Khamenei had said that the conditions are not right. But if that report is correct and it's true, seems to be true because a lot of different people have confirmed it what it means is that if kongi leaves the scene the same group of officer who wanted to undertake uh you know a good plan of reform will step forward and try to implement through the political allies, implement the same program. So again, that all depends on what happens before and after Khamenei leaves the scene. And the balance, of course, is between various factions.