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Using Machine Learning to Predict Excess Returns
When you think of the degrees of difficulty of the problem as well, when you say, i oing to predict a specific return, right? Let's take it another way. I think stock a is going to out perform stock b and your confidence in the former can be incredibly high. Now that being said, with the advent of deep learning, we started to re investigate whether deep learning could be successfully used to forecast excess returns. And what we found was that deep normal networks were essentially no better than linear regression at this problem. That now, that doesn't mean that they can't forecast excess returns, as linear regression actually does have some predictive power in forecasting. There is a relationship between