Predictions

Nate silvers, five 38 two thousand 16 us. Presidential election night forecast put hilary clinton's odds of winning at seven one point four % and donald trump's chances at 28 point six %. A itit's not a bad prediction, because we know that trump won. That's the mistake. The question is whether it was a good decision at the time, given the information you had. If you make good decisions of the second kind, you will win more often than you lose.