Is There Still a Recession in the UK?

As the U.K. deals with a bout of market volatility, political transitions, and sticky inflation, how will policy makers and the Bank of England respond, and where might the U.K. economy be headed from here? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and U.K. Economist Bruna Skarica discuss.

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Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist. 

Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Morgan Stanley's U.K. Economist. 

Andrew Sheets: And on this special two part edition of the podcast, we'll be focused on the latest political, economic and market developments in the United Kingdom and how investors should think about the situation now and going forward. It's Thursday, October 27th at 2 p.m. in London. 

Andrew Sheets: So Bruna, the world's eyes have been on the U.K. over the last couple of months, not only because it's the world's sixth largest economy, but because it's been experiencing an unprecedented level of market volatility, and it also has had an unusually large amount of political volatility. So I think a good place to start this discussion is just taking a step back. How would you currently frame the economic challenges facing the U.K.? 

Bruna Skarica: Indeed, the level of volatility has truly been historic, both in the macro space, in the market and in politics. Now, in terms of what Prime Minister Sunak has on his tray coming into number 10, first let me mention the fiscal challenges. Chancellor Hunt, who's currently in number 11, has already reversed nearly all the measures from the mini budget, which was the catalyst of all this turbulence. Still, there is more to come. We think another £30 billion of fiscal tightening will be needed to stabilize debt to GDP ratio in the medium term. So more austerity, which of course, will be negative for growth. Now, this fiscal tightening, of course, comes in order to facilitate Bank of England's monetary tightening and help return inflation to the 2% target. The Bank of England has already hiked the bank rate to 2.25%, and we expect further hikes to come. So a lot of monetary tightening weighing on growth, too. And all of this is coming in the context of a very large external shock, that is the energy price move that has led to a spike in utility bills that the state is helping to counter, but that is weighing on UK's disposable income.

Andrew Sheets: Given all of these challenges, how do you think the Bank of England is going to react? They have an upcoming meeting on November 3rd, and they’re facing a backdrop where on the one hand the U.K. has some of the highest core inflation in the developed world, and on the other hand it has a number of these risks to growth which you just outlined. How do you think they try to thread that needle and what do you think they ultimately do?

Bruna Skarica: Indeed, the Bank of England has this year had a really complicated task at its hand. What started as the energy shock to inflation first impacting headline inflation, then spread on to pretty much every part of the consumer basket. The Bank of England we think has no choice but to tighten further from here. Chief Economist Pearl, in the aftermath of the mini budget, said that there will be a significant monetary response to the fiscal news and financial market volatility. As I mentioned, the mini budget was almost entirely scrapped, volatility subsided and so we think this significant response on November 3rd will come in the form of a 75 basis point hike. And we also see clear messaging from the Bank of England next week that this should be perceived as a one off level shift and that the pace of tightening will slow from December, as a lot of monetary tightening has already been delivered. We're expecting a 50 basis point move from the bank then and then two more 25 basis points hikes in the first quarter of next year, leaving the terminal rate at 4%. 

Andrew Sheets: In the Bank of England's thinking, how does inflation come down? You know, because you still have imported inflation from a weak currency, you still have some of the higher friction cost to trade coming through from Brexit, you still have quite high core inflation. What do you think the Bank of England is looking at that gives it conviction? Alternatively, what do you think is the most likely way those predictions could be wrong? 

Bruna Skarica: Well, the first thing to mention is the energy price inflation. It is true that our in-house Morgan Stanley view is that energy prices, for example natural gas prices, will not meaningfully correct from here. However, even if they stay at their current levels, inflation itself is going to slow and that's going to be a big drag on headline inflation over the course of next year and more so into 2024 and 2025. Additionally, the U.K. has seen a very sharp increase in traded goods inflation and our Morgan Stanley in-house view is that some of this is going to come off next year in the U.S. and the DM space more broadly, which we think will help lower U.K.'s headline and core inflation over the course of next year too. We do think services inflation will remain stickier. We think it's going to average around 5% next year actually, because our labor market's very tight and wage growth will remain at levels that are not consistent with meeting the 2% inflation target. However, the traded goods and energy prices we think should help with lowering headline inflation, and that is what the Bank of England is reflecting in its forecasts.

Andrew Sheets: So Bruna you mentioned the strength of the U.K. labor market holding up despite, you know, a number of these macroeconomic challenges. What's going on there? What do you think explains the strength and how big of a problem do you think that is for the Bank of England's policy challenges? 

Bruna Skarica: That's a great question because our employment levels are actually not yet back to where they were pre-COVID. So a question arises as to why is our labor market this tight? And it's all about supply, really. The U.K.'s participation rate has been very subdued in the aftermath of the COVID shock. Some of it has to do with Brexit, a slowdown in migration flows from the EU from 2020 onwards because of course we've seen COVID and the Brexit shock coincide. However, much of it is to do with the drop in participation of U.K. born labor. For example, we now have a record high number of potential workers out with the labor force due to self-reported health issues. The health care backlog and NHS waiting lists are at an all time high and we now seem to have very limited fiscal space to address this. So we actually took down our own labor supply growth forecasts recently. This means that we do expect the slowdown in employment growth and when the recession comes shedding of employees over the course of next year, and that to be the main factor driving the rise in the unemployment rate. 

Andrew Sheets: So you have been calling for a recession around the end of the year in the U.K. and weak growth really through the middle of 2023. Is that still your forecast and what are the most likely factors that could change it? 

Bruna Skarica: Yes, that is still the case. We are looking for a 1% contraction in 2023 and for a recession to kick off in the second half of 2022. In terms of positive catalysts, I would say if natural gas prices fall further, the government will have more fiscal space to support the economy as opposed to using the funds to counter the external energy price hit. It would, of course, help with keeping the inflation somewhat lower. More resilient consumer spending, perhaps as some of those pandemic excess savings are spent, is another upside risk. But we see a very low probability of this happening. And finally, a more aggressive global disinflation, something I've mentioned when it comes to global traded goods inflation, leading to a faster return to positive real income growth, that's another factor to think about, and that would be beneficial for consumers and of course for overall U.K. GDP growth. So those are the main positive factors, I would say. 

Andrew Sheets: Bruna, thanks for taking the time to talk. 

Bruna Skarica: Great speaking with you, Andrew. 

Andrew Sheets: And thanks for listening. Be sure to tune in for the upcoming Part two of our conversation about the U.K. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.