Ep. 826: A 2019 Christmas Deep Dive with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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How to Update Beliefs to Inform Future Decisions
We can't see into what the underlying cause of a particular outcome is. So if I go through a green light and I get in a car accident, I got unlucky. In that case, that outcome is not going to inform my beliefs about whether I should drive through green lights again. And we have to figure out how to use that to loop that back in to update our beliefs so that we can be a better decision maker going forward.
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