The Use of MRP in Predicting Voting Outcomes

This chapter discusses the differences between traditional polling methods and the use of MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) to predict voting outcomes. They explain that MRP uses a larger panel and collects additional information about individuals to map their characteristics onto specific constituencies for more accurate seat-level predictions. They mention a recent MRP poll that showed a Labour majority of 120, which was used to argue for tougher immigration policies by the Tories. They also question the funding and registration of the organization behind the poll.