AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
2min chapter
Reinsurance, Climate + Kindergarten Ventures (with Nat Manning)
ACQ2 by Acquired
The Law of Large Numbers, Is the Single Best Indicator for Future Fires
The law of large numbers works really well for life expectancy and car crashes. It's basically, let's look at the historical events, and those we'll predict future events. And so for years, that did work decently well for fire. In fact, where something has burned i is the single best indicator for where things will burn in future. We then run to day roughly half a trillion simulations for every turn of our model.
00:00
Transcript
Episode notes
Get the Snipd
podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any
moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share
& Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode