Cracks in Trump's Coalition

In this episode, Chuck Todd breaks down the surprising Democratic overperformance in Tennessee’s TN-07 special election and what it signals about a rapidly shifting political landscape. From early cracks in Trump’s coalition to the GOP narrowly avoiding a full-scale collapse in a district they should have won easily, Chuck explains why this political environment is inching toward a Democratic “wave.” He digs into why Aftyn Behn’s imperfections didn’t stop her from overperforming, why Republicans can’t replicate this win in dozens of upcoming races, and how establishment ties have become toxic for candidates in Trump’s GOP. With ACA subsidies, tariffs, and Venezuela emerging as major vulnerabilities—and Trump issuing weekly, indefensible pardons—Chuck argues we may be witnessing the end stages of the Trump era. Plus, he makes the case that Democrats’ Senate prospects are stronger than people realize, especially in an environment defined by high Democratic enthusiasm and a struggling economy.

Then, entrepreneur, investor, and former “Shark Tank” star Matt Higgins joins the Chuck ToddCast for a wide-ranging conversation on ambition, politics, media, and the rapidly accelerating drone arms race. Higgins reflects on his rise from humble beginnings to serial entrepreneurship, why highlighting adversity can sometimes unintentionally promote victimhood, and how government should focus on leveling the playing field with empathy—not bureaucracy. He also explains why America is undergoing a political realignment and how leaving politics reshaped his view of its inherent narcissism. From the personalization of media to the implicit bias baked into journalism, Higgins warns about how online life can warp our sense of reality and why LinkedIn has succeeded by avoiding the toxicity of other platforms.

The discussion then turns to the future of warfare, where drones have transformed the battlefield and triggered the most significant arms race since the nuclear age. Higgins breaks down how the Ukraine war changed everything, why the U.S. is dangerously dependent on Chinese drone technology, and how difficult it will be to build a domestic drone industry without key components like magnets. He also outlines what a modern 9/11-style attack might look like, why America still isn’t prepared to defend public spaces from drone terrorism, and the urgent lessons policymakers should take from past failures. The episode wraps with a detour into the NFL: what makes a great owner, why inherited wealth doesn’t equal success, and why both New York football teams continue to puzzle fans and analysts alike.

Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 at-risk Senate seats in a “blue wave” election and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Takeaways from the TN-07 special election

02:15 Trend of Democrat overperformance continued in Tennessee

03:00 Is this political environment turning into a “wave” scenario for Democrats?

04:00 We’ve already started seeing cracks in Trump’s coalition

05:00 A loss in TN-07 would have led to the bottom falling out for the GOP

07:00 Aftyn Behn was not the perfect candidate for Dems in TN-07

08:45 Republicans will struggle to replicate this win in 35-40 races

11:00 Being associated with the establishment can be the kiss of death

11:30 Democrats are in a great political environment, Trump’s grip is slipping

12:15 GOP will likely extend ACA subsidies to mitigate the political damage

13:30 Tariffs and Venezuela are two big political liabilities for GOP

16:00 There was no mention of Trump from Matt Van Epps during campaign

16:30 There aren’t any positive future headlines coming for Republicans

18:15 We’re at the end stages of the Trump era

19:15 Environment will be high Democrat enthusiasm, with a bad economy

20:30 Trump’s granting indefensible pardons on a weekly basis

22:00 People are underrating Democrats chances of winning senate 

24:00 If history is a guide, the likelihood of Dems winning 4 senate seats is high

31:15 Matt Higgins joins the Chuck ToddCast

32:15 Matt’s journey to becoming a “serial entrepreneur”

33:30 There are hurdles, but any American can climb the ladder

34:45 Coming from nothing to finding great success in business

36:15 Do we encourage victimhood by highlighting challenging upbringings

37:30 Some ambitious, successful people need to “chase something”

39:15 Where should government have been more/less involved in your businesses?

41:00 Government’s role should be leveling the playing field with empathy

43:15 America is in the middle of a political realignment

44:00 America needs a “next north star” after winning cold war

45:00 How Matt got started working for Rudy Giuliani

46:00 How did leaving politics change your view of politics?

47:00 There’s a degree of narcissism when you’re in government

47:45 The personalization of the media has politicized it

49:15 Humans are born with original bias, journalists will have it

51:30 There will be implicit bias infused in journalism, but it’s gone too far

53:15 If you spend too much time online it warps your view of reality

54:45 LinkedIn has become a trusted space by not being like Twitter or IG

57:00 Press & comms shops matter more than ever in politics & business

59:45 Drones have completely changed the complexion of modern warfare

1:00:30 How Matt got into the military drone business

1:02:15 Everything changed in the drone space after the Ukraine war

1:03:15 Does automating warfare make killing easier when it looks like a video game?

1:04:15 The U.S. needs an arsenal of drones it doesn’t currently have

1:05:30 You can’t make drone motors without magnets & the U.S. doesn’t make them

1:06:00 Drones are the biggest arms race since nuclear weapons

1:06:45 A dependency on Chinese drones was created in the U.S.

1:07:30 Biggest obstacles to building a domestic drone industry

1:08:45 A modern 9/11 style attack would most likely involve drones

1:10:15 We haven’t figured out protecting public spaces from drones

1:12:45 What lessons can we take away from 9/11 for countering drone terrorism?

1:14:45 What makes a good NFL owner and how much does ownership matter?

1:16:30 Owners shouldn’t placate media or fans with short term moves

1:17:00 Why is it so hard to build a winner with the Jets?

1:19:15 Inherited wealth vs success in business impact on sports owners

1:20:45 D.C. still isn’t aware of how important the drone arms race is

1:21:45 America’s enemies are learning how to make drones at scale

01:25:30 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Matt Higgins

01:26:45 ToddCast Top 5 Senate seats on “blue wave watch”

01:27:30 Historical precedents for massive upsets during wave years

01:30:30 #5 Florida

01:32:45 #4 Kentucky

01:35:00 #3 South Carolina

01:39:30 #2 Mississippi

01:41:00 #1 Montana

01:43:00 Ask Chuck

01:43:15 Thanks for having Clay Travis on to push us outside our bubbles

01:45:30 What to make of all the censures in congress?

01:49:45 How do the U.S. & Europe get responsible leaders into power?

01:57:30 Why is Biden facing challenges fundraising for his library?

02:01:15 Could Trump’s legacy become that of Benedict Arnold?

02:05:00 Could we see a mixed party presidential ticket in the future?

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