For almost six centuries Europe has been at the centre of world affairs.

While the days of Empire are long gone, over the last several decades the importance and comparative wealth of Europe has declined at an extraordinary pace. Indeed for many countries, from Britain to Germany and Greece, living standards have stagnated or even declined.

Now, in what seem like the final months of the war in Ukraine, Europe can no longer rely on security guarantees made by the United States. Technologically dependent on a superpower across the Atlantic, the countries of Europe are economically, militarily and politically weaker than at any time in centuries. All while China ascends to the category of superpower, and Russia returns to the politics of expansionism.

So how bad are things for Europe? Has its entire political class just been discredited? If so, what will be the consequences? Could Russia target other states, like Lithuania or Estonia, if it succeeds in annexing large parts of Ukraine? Is there a model Europe can pursue beyond vassalage to Washington? And how might it relate to China in an increasingly multipolar world?