The Unpredictability of Game Show Success

How do TV producers decide how much money to give away? A little psychology and a lot of math. Zachary Crockett phones a friend.

• SOURCES:
  • Bowen Kerins, math teacher and former contestant on Who Wants to Be A Millionaire.
  • Arthur Smith, CEO of A. Smith & Co. Productions and author of "Reach: Hard Lessons and Learned Truths from a Lifetime in Television."
  • Aaron Solomon, television producer.

• RESOURCES:
  • "‘The Price Is Right’ Celebrates 10,000 Episodes With Extra Big Wins for Contestants That Top Off at $100,000!" by Rosemary Rossi (Variety, 2025).
  • "Why haven’t more game show prizes been adjusted for inflation?" by Janet Nguyen (Marketplace, 2023).
  • "Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show," by Thierry Post, Martijn J. van den Assem, Guido Baltussen, and Richard Thaler (American Economic Review, 2008).
  • "Why Game Shows Have Economists Glued to Their TVs," by Charles Florelle (Wall Street Journal, 2006).

• EXTRAS:
  • "Bowen Kerins on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" (2000).