108: 2023 Outlook: A New Investment Playbook
The Bid
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Inflation Forecast for 2022
Bivak: 2022 did feel like an inflection point, which I think is what you're touching on. And one of the other things that inflected this year seemed to be inflation. The short answer is yes, but also how quickly inflation comes down is important as well when it comes to the calculus for central banks. We expect higher inflation in the UK finishing next year around 4.3%. Also rounding out our expectation for the macro environment for next year, we are expecting a recession in the US of about 1% fall in output first half of the year before rebounding.
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