Will There Be a Recession This Year?

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Our recession call is there's a 75% probability of a recession over the next 12 months. Mortgage rates are high, so lots of people can't afford to buy. But with higher wages, which we also have, some people can afford to buying. People worrying about a recession are too scared to buy. So, when you put the positive and negatives together, I think the house price gain will be flat. No increase. We also have for you today a bonus category. This is not usually part of our game show, but of course everyone wants to know one big thing. Will there be a recession this year? So, we asked our predictors. And Joe's data does point

It's time for another installment of ... Planet Money Predictions! *air horn*

Last year, we invited two economic forecasters to tell us what they saw coming for jobs, the housing market, and inflation. And now they're back. Which means it's time to find out whose predictions were more on the money, and send the victor to the next round, where they face off against a new forecasting phenom.

Since our last game, housing and inflation have cooled, but the job market keeps going strong. And the possibility of a recession still looms large. Our forecasters tell us what they see in the economy now, and what they expect in the months ahead.

This episode was produced by James Sneed. It was engineered by Katherine Silva. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and edited by Molly Messick. Jess Jiang is our acting executive producer.

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