Is the Probability of War Between China and the United States More Likely Than You Think?

If i can't list all the possible things that might happen in the future, let alone attach probabilities to them, does that give me carte blanche to believe whatever i want? It absolutely does not. This is one of the great er mistakes that economists have made,. particularly in relation to the ways in which they think about ma economics. There are things that are completely known, at any rate, up to a probability distribution, and things that are unknown that are typically called shocks. We know quite a lot about how bubbles evolve from our historic experience. But that's not at all the same as being able to say, this one is going to blow up in october two thousand and