Zeberg Business Cycle Model Signals

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, warns that despite stock markets hitting all-time highs, the real economy is sinking fast - private job creation has fallen below recessionary levels seen in 2007, and 90% of US consumers are now worse off than going into both the 2008 financial crisis and the 1929 depression. Using his Titanic metaphor, he explains first class passengers (top 10%) are still at the bar while third class is already in the water. Zeberg predicts a blow-off top with the S&P potentially hitting 8,200 before a crash worse than 2008, driven by central bank hubris that will trigger stagflation when the Fed inevitably intervenes. He's long-term bullish on gold and silver but warns of a short-term pullback as the dollar spikes to 120+ on the DXY during the deflationary bust, and explains why there's no easy way out this time - we've exhausted the free lunch of money printing.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck. 

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Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H

00:00 Intro and welcome Henrik Zeberg

01:22 Macro view, the real economy is about job creation, not financial markets

04:13 90% of consumers worse off than going into 2008 and 1929

05:58 Titanic metaphor: First class denying while third class already in water

06:56 Chart: ADP private job creation declining to recessionary levels

08:26 Illusion of stability: Stock market disconnect from economy

09:07 Stock market doesn't predict recessions - look at unemployment

11:15 Zeberg business cycle model pointing to recession

14:55  Bond market sniffing out problems - yield curve signals

20:02 Central banks and the Fed: The hubris problem

23:02 2020 changed everything - inflation is back as a factor

25:26 Gold and silver starting to show end game signs

26:20 If Fed intervenes with more stimulus, it creates stagflation

28:03 Henrik's views on gold and silver clarified

30:55 Dollar regime coming - DXY could spike

32:12 Long-term bullish gold/silver but short-term pullback expected

35:35 Navigating different regimes as an investor

38:19 Strong dollar implications

39:06 Current regime still risk-on, riding the blow off top

43:29 Why this recession will be worse than 2008

48:21 No easy way out - we're at the end of the Keynesian curve

49:12 Can we get back to sound money? Only through pain

51:41 Under the radar trend: Realization of how bad consumer really is

53:55 AI won't save us short-term - actually reduces jobs needed

54:25 Wrap up: Think for yourself, do your own research