Predictions: hate-crime laws and immigration politics

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more.

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• Europe continues to focus more on regulation than innovation, creating challenges for economic growth
• Traditional European industries like auto manufacturing are struggling with the transition to electric vehicles
• Chinese companies are producing better and cheaper electric cars that align with Europe's climate goals
• The Gaza deal is viewed positively because it considers Gaza's economic future beyond just stopping violence
• An economically self-sustaining Gaza might be less likely to support groups like Hamas
• Gulf Arab countries could potentially assist with Gaza's economic development given their expertise
• Israel has been militarily successful against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran but faces global criticism
• Israel's approach to international criticism has often relied on projecting strength rather than building alliances
• Israel remains dependent on other countries for military supplies despite its own manufacturing capabilities
• Regular people are disengaging from politics, leaving only the most extreme voices engaged ("evaporative cooling effect")
• Political discussions on platforms like X (Twitter) have become increasingly extreme
• Young political staffers who work for both parties are heavily consuming this extremist content
• The speakers observe parallels to the political unrest of the 1960s-70s, which eventually dissipated
• Unlike previous eras, today's extremism remains highly visible online even as the general public tunes out
• Discussion of Zohran Mamdani's election in New York as representing a new direction in leftist politics
• Concern about the mainstreaming of far-right figures like Nick Fuentes who previously were more fringe
• The conversation reflects concern about the polarization between extremes while the majority of people disengage
• There's agreement that substantive engagement with ideas is needed rather than simply dismissing opponents

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Timestamps:

00:00 — Introduction

00:24 — Europe and Russia

03:02 — China and Electric Cars

04:38 — Israel-Gaza Conflict

06:43 — American Sentiment Toward Israel

09:57 – Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite

12:00 — Online Extremism and Political Disengagement

22:50 — Staffers and Extremism

24:25 – Sponsor: Found

25:29 — New York Politics and Mamdani

31:47 — The Future of Leftist Politics

34:11 — Race and Identity

38:06 — Islam and Immigration

38:44 — Identitarian Populism

41:44 — Closing Thoughts

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https://x.com/Noahpinion

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