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Once is random, twice is coincidence, here's three and we have something.

Eurodollar University

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The Effect of a Supply Shock on Inflation Expectations

Inflation expectations have dropped by about 45 basis points in the first quarter of 23, relative to the fourth quarter of 22. The model interprets this change in long-term inflation expectations as resulting from higher expected total factor productivity growth. But that's just a calculation. Were it not for this data point, output and inflation projections would be a lot closer to those in March.

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