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Prediction Markets and Beyond

a16z Podcast

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Bayesian Truth Serum and Prediction Markets

This chapter explores the Bayesian truth serum concept as applied to prediction markets and blockchain technology, emphasizing how it assesses individual opinions alongside awareness of others' beliefs. The conversation addresses the need for transparency in journalism through 'skin in the game' practices, proposing a new model for journalists that could bolster trust in the media. Additionally, it contrasts gambling with informed speculation, stressing the significance of structured prediction markets in delivering accurate forecasts and fostering critical analysis in decision-making.

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