Commercial Real Estate - Is Cap Rates Lower Than Interest Rates?

Cap rates are lower than interest rates right now in a lot of the space. This is not sustainable, in my opinion. One way that could happen is supply and demand dynamics. On the supply side, we're going to have the most inventory coming online since the 1970s. All you got to do is peek out the window here in Denver and you see cranes more prolific than they ever have been.

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A commercial real estate crash is looking more and more likely in 2023. Rising interest rates, compressed cap rates, and new inventory about to hit the market is making commercial real estate, and multifamily more specifically, look as unattractive as ever to a real estate investor. But with so much money still thrown at multifamily investments, are everyday investors going to get caught up in all the hysteria? Or is this merely an overhyped crash that won’t come to fruition for years to come?

Scott Trench, CEO of BiggerPockets and host of the BiggerPockets Money Podcast, has had suspicions about the multifamily space since mortgage rates began to spike. Now, he’s on the show to explain why a crash could happen, who it will affect, and what investors can do to prepare themselves. This is NOT a time to take on the high-stakes deals that were so prominent in 2020 and 2021. Scott gives his recommendations on what both passive and active investors can do to keep their wealth if and when a crash finally hits.

But that’s not all! We wouldn’t be talking about multifamily without Andrew Cushman and Matt Faircloth, two large multifamily investors who have decades of experience in the space. Andrew and Matt take questions from two BiggerPockets mentees, Philip and Danny, a couple of California-based investors trying to scale their multifamily portfolios. If you want to get into multifamily the right way or dodge a lousy deal, stick around!

In This Episode We Cover:

The commercial real estate crash and bad news for high-interest rate investors

Cap rate compression, rent stagnation, and red flags for the multifamily market

Recommendations for both active and passive multifamily investors

How to vet a real estate syndication deal when raising private capital

Scaling from small to large multifamily and why the jump is easier than you think

Cash flow vs. appreciation and which is a better bet if valuations start to tank

Balloon payments, adjustable-rate mortgages, and risky financing options putting new investors in a tough spot

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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BiggerPockets Youtube Channel