Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg cover image

What we really mean when we say that something will "probably" happen (with Walt Hickey)

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

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Understanding Probability Through Simulation Models

This chapter explores the intricacies of interpreting simulation-derived probabilities used in forecasting models, such as those for sports and weather. It highlights the importance of validating these simulations against actual outcomes and includes a note on the complexities of understanding precipitation probabilities.

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