
How to reason about COVID, and other hard things (Kelsey Piper)
Rationally Speaking Podcast
Are You Often Wrong in a Systematic Direction?
You have to put in the time. Often when i form an impression based on like, one hour of reading something, i am often wrong. I think mostly i'm just like neglecting a factor that's very important and turns out to be like, the dominant one. Like outdoor transmission is something where liked, initially, it seems a little less than indoor transmission. And then later it turned out that actually, like, i think it basically dominates most calculations.
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