The Genius of Thomas Sowell cover image

"Disparate Impact" with Heather Mac Donald

The Genius of Thomas Sowell

CHAPTER

How to Guess the Probability of Two People With the Same Birthday

So if there are 60 people in a bar, right, at random, what's the probability that there are two people there with the same birthday? Okay, uniformly distributed is 8%. If I'll bias it, I'll say 16%. So you think around 25% or too high? Maybe too high, maybe less. Use your intuition. Just, you know, shooting from the hip using your intuition. It's pretty high because you have so many pairs of people that it's pretty likely to get someone. What was the total number of people? 60 people. But if I was at the same birthday, it's gonna be, it should be 5 out of the 60. Give me

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