How to Predict When AI Will Reach a Milestone

Experts are asked to predict the milestones in several ways. In what year did they think it was as likely as not that AI would reach that milestone? Here's a list of the predictions, the year it happened and the predicted year. And Scott's gone through and graded these by colour to see whether they were predicted early or late or right on time. The ones that haven't happened yet but were predicted earlier beat the best human star craft players,. Beat the best human and group birds players, fold laundry as well as the best humans and several more.