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#50 Ta(l)king Risks & Embracing Uncertainty, with David Spiegelhalter

Learning Bayesian Statistics

CHAPTER

The Absolute Real Value of Multiple Independent Teams

In the u k, eight different teams are working together to estimate reproduction numbers. They all get together on a committee spy m and they pull their result results for r that is then published. But very nicely, they also publish their individual estimates with the intervals. Some of the intervals overlap. Lost en don't overlap at all. And it's a brilliant insight, i think, into the real dangers of believing the numbers that come out of your model because they're always too narrow, and they propably burstyou.

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