Evidence and Missing Research on Sprawl Effects

Hosts note limited Ontario studies, reference UK research, and call for CMHC-funded analysis.

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Transcript

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Transcript

Episode notes

Ontario’s Greenbelt is often treated as untouchable — but is it actually making the housing crisis worse?In this episode of The Missing Middle, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux tackle the question viewers keep asking: can Ontario build enough family-friendly homes without touching the Greenbelt — and what happens if it doesn’t? They unpack how the Greenbelt was sold as a social contract, why governments never delivered the missing middle housing they promised, and how policies meant to stop sprawl may have actually pushed families farther away.

The conversation breaks down four realistic paths forward: doing nothing, finally legalizing family-sized infill housing, cutting immigration to ease demand, or partially opening the Greenbelt — and why every option is politically fraught. Along the way, they explain leapfrog sprawl, why condos aren’t working for families, and how decades of policy avoidance have left young Canadians priced out and disillusioned.

If you care about housing affordability, family-friendly neighborhoods, or the future of Ontario’s cities, this episode lays out the uncomfortable trade-offs politicians keep avoiding.

Chapters:

00:00 – Introduction

00:47 – The Most Common Audience Question

01:50 – Is the Greenbelt Politically Untouchable Now?

05:23 – The Greenbelt’s Broken Social Contract

10:05 – What Families Actually Need in a Home

11:35 – How the Greenbelt Makes Sprawl Worse

14:00 – Has Anyone Studied Greenbelt Sprawl?

15:00 – Four Options for Housing vs the Greenbelt

15:53 - Option 1: Do Nothing

18:31 – Option 2: Fix Housing Without Expansion

23:48 – Option 3: Cutting Immigration