How to Predict a Housing Bubble Recession

Of 153 recessions in 63 countries from 1992 to 2014, only 5 were predicted by a consensus of private sector economists in April. In November 2007, when the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia polled leading economists, asking them where they thought the US economy was headed, the consensus was that GDP would be up about 2.4% in 2008. Ed Lemur is our guest for this week's Housing Bubble Week podcast. He has become one of my favourite economists because his grasp on the economy is not theoretical but empirical.