How to Assess the Risk of a Levered Portfolio

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The theoretical risk-return ratio of this portfolio is incredible, and it seems too good to be true. Is the largest risk the fact that levered ETFs are a relatively new product and could blow up in some future unknown scenario? I'm having trouble wrapping my head around how to assess the risk. Please poke some large holes in the assumptions of this study so that I don't have to worry about it.

In this episode we answer emails from Pete, MyContactInfo and Jenzo. We discuss leveraged funds, a paper about holding them longer term and optimal leverage, analyzing leveraged portfolios, meta-concepts of retirement portfolio planning and how to separate the critical components of a withdrawal strategy (the dogs) from various management techniques, labeling methods and mental accounting (the tails), and last year's scare paper about hyper-low safe withdrawal rates of poorly constructed international portfolios.

Links:

Leveraged Portfolios Article/Paper: Double-Digit Numerics - Articles - The Big Myth about Leveraged ETFs (ddnum.com)

Sample Optimized Portfolios Article: What Is a Leveraged ETF and How Do They Work? (optimizedportfolio.com)

Analysis of UPRO vs S&P: https://tinyurl.com/me4c2xj9

Analysis of TNA vs. IWM: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Analysis of TMF vs. TLT: Backtest Portfolio Asset Allocation (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Portfolio Charts Risk/Reward Calculator: RISK AND RETURN – Portfolio Charts

Portfolio Visualizer Efficient Frontier Tool: Efficient Frontier (portfoliovisualizer.com)

Bond Funds vs. Bond Ladders: Owning Individual Bonds vs. Owning a Bond Fund - A Wealth of Common Sense

Low Safe Withdrawal Rate Paper: delivery.php (ssrn.com)