Analyzing Inflation Expectations and Federal Reserve Responses

Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted US President Trump’s trade taxes would raise inflation and lower economic growth. Markets have already worked this out, but Powell saying it has policy implications. On the evidence of (unreliable) sentiment surveys, over a third of US consumers think inflation will exceed 10% this year. Powell emphasized longer-term inflation expectations, which should still allow for rate cuts. The self-inflicted nature of the economic slowdown may limit the number of cuts.