Investment, Progress and S-Curves

This week we are republishing one of our favourite conversations that didn't get much visibility when it first came out.

About the episode:

Nataraj hosts Pedro Domingos, a distinguished figure in AI and machine learning, to discuss the current state of AI, hype cycles, and future trends. Pedro shares insights from his early career, his widely-read book "The Master Algorithm," and his satirical novel "2040." He offers a critical perspective on LLMs, the AI safety debate, and what truly drives progress in the field, while providing guidance on navigating the complex information landscape and choosing impactful research problems. The discussion dives deep into the societal impact of AI, the importance of critical thinking, and the future of AI research, offering a unique blend of technical insights and thought-provoking commentary. Why should you care? Understand the reality behind the AI hype, identify future trends, and learn how to navigate the complex world of AI research.

What you’ll learn  

    - Understand the reality of AI progress, separating it from the hype and misconceptions surrounding LLMs and AGI [1, 2].

    - Learn about the history of AI, including Herb Simon's Nobel Prize and the evolution of machine learning as a subfield of AI .

    - Discern the truth about AI, including the importance of machine learning, reasoning, and other AI fields .

    - Identify the key factors driving investment in AI and the potential risks of the current AI bubble, including how technological progress can be shaped using S-curves .

    - Gain insights into the future of AI research, exploring the limitations of transformers and the need for diverse research directions .

    - Explore the concept of "The Master Algorithm" and how it provides a comprehensive view of AI, beyond narrow slivers of research .

    - Learn practical tips for navigating the information landscape, including identifying reliable sources, being a critical consumer of information, and maximizing your "Sharpe ratio" in terms of impact .

    - Discover the importance of mentorship and community in AI research, including attending conferences, engaging in discussions, and learning the empirical method of machine learning .

About the Guest and Host:

Guest Name: Pedro Domingos is a professor emeritus of computer science and engineering from the University of Washington and a leading expert in artificial intelligence.

Connect with Guest: 

→ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/pedro-domingos-77b183/

Nataraj: Host of the Startup Project podcast, Senior PM at Azure & Investor. 

→ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/natarajsindam/  

→ Twitter: https://x.com/natarajsindam

→ Substack: ⁠https://startupproject.substack.com/⁠

→ Website: ⁠⁠⁠https://thestartupproject.io⁠⁠⁠

In this episode, we cover  

    (00:01) Introduction and Guest Introduction

    (01:26) Pedro's early career and why he chose machine learning

    (03:51) Nobel Prizes and AI

    (07:12) AI vs Machine Learning

    (08:53) LLMs and the current AI hype cycle

    (14:17) Comparing Models to Human Intelligence

    (16:56) Investment in AI and progress

    (21:22) Thoughts on OpenAI

    (25:56) Investing in talent

    (29:05) AI Safety

    (35:10) Master Algorithm

    (40:27) Jensen Wong and NVIDIA's Pivot

    (43:59) AI Chip Projects

    (47:05) 2040

    (52:19) How AI Will Change Society

    (55:12) Recommendation Systems

    (59:56) Sources of Consumption

    (01:07:50) What Pedro is consuming

    (01:09:59) Advice to those interested in AI research

    (01:12:41) Mentors

    (01:15:47) Advice to Researchers

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