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Chris Whalen on Big Bank Earnings and the Return of Credit Risk

Forward Guidance

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The Distress of Commercial Real Estate

In the shadow banking system, when banks want to sell loans, are they being sold at severe discounts? Every now and then, I'll see someone, a hedge fund manager, a distressed debt manager saying that they're buying loans that yields 15%. And that seems like a pretty big sign of distress to me. The headline is going to come from commercial exposures, restructuring the legacy cities, particularly New York City. That's going to be the headline this year, not residential market.

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