The Recession That Is Imminent and Yet Never Coming

This week, we had a bunch of chief strategist types roll back their recession expectations. Can we even know that companies have rationalized their businesses or they've operated in a way that somehow kept us from getting overextended and maybe made the expansion more sustainable? We can't know it. Every single one since 1970 was caused by a shock. Until we get a shock, it's probably premature to worry. But again, you can't predict the shock by definition.