Which Bonds to Watch and Thresholds

Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined once again by economist Stu Thompson for a wide-ranging episode that uncovers why QE and the Fed Cuts might just be kicking off the Santa Rally, and how it's multiplying your portfolio returns.

From blockbuster takeover bids and trillion-dollar IPO rumours, to a surprise return of quantitative easing and rising long-dated bond yields, the team unpack a week full of “toppy” signals, and explain why the bond market may be quietly flashing warning lights beneath the surface.

Along the way, they dig into the Fed’s latest rate cut, what’s really driving equity markets higher, and why Santa’s rally might not be as smooth as investors are hoping.

This Week’s Highlights

📉 Fed Cuts - But Changes the Game

The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps, but quietly reintroduces QE at the short end of the bond market, earlier and more aggressively than expected.

📊 Bond Market Warning Signs

US, Japanese and global long-dated bond yields rise despite rate cuts, raising questions about inflation, credibility, and future growth.

🎥 Mega Deals & Market Froth

A $75bn+ bidding war for Warner Bros and rumours of a SpaceX IPO at a $1.5tn valuation spark debate about market peaks.

📈 Rotation Under the Surface

While big tech cools, the Russell 2000 hits fresh highs, signalling rotation into smaller US companies.

🤖 AI Reality Check

Oracle disappoints, Nvidia cools, and capital expenditure concerns resurface, reminding investors that AI profits still need to show up in cash flows.

🎄 Is the Santa Rally at Risk?

With central banks, payroll data, inflation prints and global bond markets all in focus, the team debate whether year-end optimism can survive.

Special Guest – Stu Thompson (Economist)

Stu helps decode what’s happening beneath the headlines:

📌 Why rising long-dated bond yields matter more than rate cuts

📌 What QE vs QT actually means for markets

📌 Why the yield curve is quietly steepening, and why that matters

📌 How AI productivity is changing growth and employment forecasts

Portfolio Snapshot

Weekly performance: +1.15%

Total return since inception: +10.95%

Top performers:

🥇 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +7.22%

🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +7.20%

🥉 iShares Russell 2000 ETF: +1.52%

Underperformers:

📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: –0.90%

📉 Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF: –0.67%

What You’ll Learn

✔️ Why equity markets can rise even as bond markets flash warnings

✔️ How QE can return without anyone ringing the alarm bell

✔️ Why the bond market sets the “price of risk” for everything else

✔️ What rising yields really say about inflation and credibility

✔️ How to spot market “froth” without panicking

✔️ Why catalysts matter more than valuation alone

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides

View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.com

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Disclaimer

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.



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