"Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer" by Paul Christiano
LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
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Eliezer's Predictions About AI Training Strategies
Eliezer seems to be partly making a relatively confident claim that the nature of AI is going to change a lot. There's nothing in the foreseeable ways of building AI that would call for a big transfer like this, rather than continuously training as intelligence gradually increases. I find Eliezer's more detailed claims much more implausible than his already probably quantitatively wrong claims about take-off speeds. The Eliezer predictions most relevant to how do scientific disciplines work that I'm most aware of are incorrectly predicting that physicists would be wrong about the existence of the Higgs boson.
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