4min chapter

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Eric Basmajian: Further Downside Ahead For Risk Asset's

Market Depth

CHAPTER

What's the Start Date of a Recession?

Eric Liu: I believe that a recession is likely to begin in the vicinity of Q1. We have longer leading indicators that are deeply, deeply negative and they've been deeply negative for several months now. And now we have shorter leading indicators like new orders or industrial commodity prices like copper falling 30% from their peak. These are shorter leadingicators that are borderline recessionary. That gives you a very strong warning signal that sometime in the next two, three, four months, you should see contractions across a wider basket of coincident indicators.

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